Europe has given rise to a multitude of acronyms or names occurring during the crisis, the possibility of the United Kingdom separating from the EU – finally the United Kingdom will leave the EU – has its corresponding laissez-faire: ‘Brexit’. And, of course, it joins the long-standing list of political, economic and financial uncertainties with which this 2016 has started.
According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch’s latest survey of investment fund managers, Brexit Is the greatest risk for 13% of respondents in March, when a month earlier that proportion was limited to 8%. It represents the risk that has grown the most concern in the last month, above the fear of a recession in the US or the fear of devaluation of the Chinese yuan. And another point: the threat of ‘Brexit’ causes the British stock exchange to be the least recommended by those managers for the next 12 months.
In Europe: to be or not to be?
As a background to this consultation, the need to consult the British if they want to continue in a European project whose consolidation requires more and more cohesion and a greater transfer of sovereignty. That is to say, two of the issues that most cause misgivings in the United Kingdom. British Prime Minister David Cameron promised to call him if he was re-elected in the 2015 elections; He got it, and now he has to fulfill his words.
The countdown to the query generates a growing impatience. First, because of the uncertain outcome, since the surveys do not yield any clear triumph, so the ‘Brexit’ option is very much alive. «The average voter in the United Kingdom is not going to vote based on facts, but on his ability to dedicate a comb (or in the case of the UK, a double comb) to the Elite, «says Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxoa Bank.
And second, because of the economic, financial and commercial interests that are at stake. The close trade and financial relations of the United Kingdom and Europe would be restricted by the ‘Brexit’ and would remain at the expense of subsequent negotiations to define a new framework of relations between the two parties.